He points out two important things. The first one is that Microsoft is facing a lot of competition when it comes to development tools, languages and all. That is true. I like Microsoft, but I can see them loosing a lot of mindshare.
The second thing he points out is that Adobe is the one gaining terrain from Microsoft. That is also true, but I think here is where he misses one point. I have always thought (and found that my developer peers agree) that Microsoft has a maturity level that Adobe (or Macromedia when it was) hasn’t reached yet. I think Microsoft has a better understanding of the developers, has better IDEs and it is easier for a newcomer to get started with VB than Actionscript I’m sure. And while Adobe might be more innovative and have more momentum, you cannot ignore the years Microsoft has developing and perfectioning Visual Studio and their Framework.
I remember when I tried Flex how HARD it was to find solutions on the internet. I gave up on it. With Microsoft you can trust the “I’m feeling lucky today” button when it comes to solution. And the VS2005 IDE is YEARS ahead any IDE Adobe has (Dreamweaver included).
This might (will – I think) change with time. What I would’ve loved seen is Microsoft embracing Flash instead of competing with it (just like Borland did with their .Net Edition od Delphi), using VB instead of ActionScript would’ve been great for both sides.